Cold Tusker

Cold Tusker

18 July 2015 » Cold Tusker

There has been a lot written and debated but I wanted to highlight some of the predictions about the European Monetary Union.Source: Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/nine-people-who-saw-the-greek-crisis-coming-years-before-everyone-else-didArnulf BaringThe German political scientist offered dire predictions in his 1997 book Scheitert Deutschland? Here's an English translation:They will say that we are subsidizing scroungers, lounging in cafés on the Mediterranean...

13 April 2015 » Cold Tusker

Is KQ on its last wings?http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1304.pdf by @AlyKhanSatchuMy blogpostshttp://coldtusker.blogspot.com/2012/04/kenya-airways-rip-off.htmlhttp://coldtusker.blogspot.com/2012/04/kq-rights-issue-2012.htmlhttp://coldtusker.blogspot.com/2012/04/kenya-airways-commissions-payment-scam.htmlhttp://coldtusker.blogspot.com/2012/04/govt-of-kenya-to-pay-commission-for-kq.htmlhttp://coldtusker.blogspot.com/2015/01/kq-losses-losses-and-more-losses.htmlBy the inimitable &...

05 April 2015 » Cold Tusker

A major shareholder [British-American (Kenya) Holdings] in Britam EA associated with Dawood Rawat, a director of Britam EA, is in big trouble. 3 directors in Britam EA are associated with Bramer Bank of Mauritius.Britam Kenya Holdings, a subsidiary of Britam Mauritius, is a major shareholder in Britam EA (listed on the NSE). So Britam EA is not directly affected by the mess but there may be counter-party exposure.Bremer Bank, associated with Britam Mauritius through the Rawat Family, has been...

13 January 2015 » Cold Tusker

Ahhh, my bête noire never fails to fail...*I support KQ as an airline but the poor decisions made by (some members of) the Board and Management have financially devastated KQ*And Godfrey Mwampembwa aka Gado [on Twitter as @iGaddo] says what I could not in 1,000 words...Source: http://gadocartoons.com/kq-10-billion-loss-blaming-ebola/

13 January 2015 » Cold Tusker

The term Strategic Investor is often bandied around and it seems many firms are looking for one.What is a Strategic Investor?Why have a Strategic Investor?What the pros and cons?I do not want to post a long post so I will try to be brief.A Strategic Investor is one who:Invests for the "Long Haul" [not a Speculator nor a Financial Investor] but can sell out if need be.Provides additional capabilities, knowledge or access to superior technology.Often has an additional (in-depth) relationship with...

27 June 2014 » Cold Tusker

The flavor this week, though many months in the making, is mostly about loans and bonds.Kenya's first ever Eurobond is a resounding success and raised USD 2bn. And at lower than expected rates. The $500mn, 5-year Bonds offered 5.875% and $1.5bn, 10-year rate offered 6.875%. Good show by Kenya's Treasury, its first ever non-politician Cabinet Secretary and the Central Bank of Kenya. It seems the World Bank has a positive outlook for Kenya with the potential production of crude oil by 2017 by...

05 September 2013 » Cold Tusker

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/KQ+s+subsidiary+eyes+turnaround+after+record+loss/-/539552/1981302/-/item/1/-/nuh6asz/-/index.htmlWow, things are going bad to worse for KQ as its Tanzanian subsidiary [KQ owns 41.2%] makes a record loss of around TZS 30,400,000,000 [KES 1,650,000,000 or USD 19,000,000] for 2012-13.http://wolfganghthome.wordpress.com/2013/09/05/aviation-observers-stunned-by-level-of-precision-air-losses/Crazy!

19 August 2013 » Cold Tusker

A look back at a blogpost I posted on 11th April 2012 about the downturn in Egypt's manufacturing and how Kenyan firms can take advantage of the situationhttp://coldtusker.blogspot.com/2012/04/manufacturing-egypt-downdraft.htmlHere is an article from Global Post about disinvestment from Egypt or at the minimum a slowdown.http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/egypt/130815/egypt-economy-violence-cairo-rabaa-muslim-brotherhood-military-aidAs a member of COMESA, Kenya stands...

27 June 2013 » Cold Tusker

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/KQ-eyes-cost-savings-to-restore-profit-/-/539550/1895744/-/6chwxf/-/index.htmlCitigroup projects the airline to post a net loss of Sh3.1 billion in the current financial year ending March 2014 on higher costs that will wipe out sales.KQ’s sales are expected to rise 15.3 per cent to Sh114 billion but Citigroup says expenses such as direct costs and net interest payments will rise to Sh118.5 billion, offsetting sales.The national carrier is...

27 June 2013 » Cold Tusker

http://news.yahoo.com/newly-listed-kenyan-lender-m-plans-raise-more-124757835.html;_ylt=AwrNUPwGLctRPTkADQD_wgt.I&M Holdings re-listed on 25th June 2013 after a Reverse Merger.City Trust, a then listed entity on the Nairobi Securities Exchange, acquired I&M Bank Ltd by issuing CTL shares to the shareholders of I&M Bank Limited.After CTL owned 100% of I&M Bank Ltd, it changed its name to I&M Holdings which encompasses various banking businesses/subsidiaries.I&M Bank -...

14 May 2013 » Cold Tusker

Whither Kenya Airways?So after all the hype in 2012 regarding the Rights Issue by Citigroup, (Not-the) Standard Investment Bank and CFC Stanbic... KQ shares are trading at KES 11.35 which is 19% below the Rights Price of KES 14.00 ... I betcha that none of the 'advisers' were paid in shares but in cash. Ideally, they should have been paid in (locked-in) shares so they feel the gain or pain.KQ is in a deep funk. Sad but true.KQ acceded to the unions demands for higher pay/perks/benefits in 2010...

14 May 2013 » Cold Tusker

Well, if one can make a business out of Asylum/refugee Camps, then why not?http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/British-MPs-want-asylum-seekers-camp-set-up-in-Kenya/-/2558/1751796/-/1231gdl/-/index.htmlMy (preliminary) thoughts:The Brits pay Kenya(ns) $1,000 per month per refugee. House them in a building built with Bamburi cement, roads built by Kenyan [more likely the Chinese] firms using Kenyan engineers and labor.Provide them with food grown (and processed) by Kenyan farmers (and agro-...

14 May 2013 » Cold Tusker

The season of Rights Issues [last seen in early to mid 2012] is back. With the pre-election political temperatures rising in late 2012 into 2013 and the subsequent economic uncertainty led to high(er) interest rates, a volatile KES and low share prices, the fundraising at the NSE was muted.Now that the Kenyan General Election is over for most candidates, other matters started taking center stage including the (eagerly awaited) naming of Cabinet Appointees by President Uhuru Kenyatta and the...

09 May 2013 » Cold Tusker

An interesting comment by Aidan Heavey [if quoted correctly] in reference to oil Tullow discovered in Kenya.“If local roads were improved, Tullow could start producing from Kenya now, possibly trucking crude to the refinery in Mombasa,” Mr Heavey told Bloomberg at the side line of the company’s annual general meeting held in London Wednesday.This is good news for Kenya since it means oil production (Twiga-1 and Ngamia-1)can start sooner than the projected 5-7 years. It may not be in large...

06 April 2013 » Cold Tusker

So taxpayer funded AND subsidized National Oil of Kenya (NOCK), via Sumayya Athman, offered to build Mwai Kibaki a petrol station wherever he wants regardless of the financial viability of the petrol station?So I asked Kenyans On Twitter aka #KOT for suggestions and they do not disappoint!Via @coldtusker : Why doesn't @KCBGroup follow in NOCK's footsteps & offer to build a branch wherever kibz wants? cc @JoshuaOigara (CEO of KCB)Via @sunnywords : Perhaps @SafaricomLtd could offer a base...

06 April 2013 » Cold Tusker

Emilio Mwai Kibaki will retire, as Kenya's 3rd president, on 9th April 2013 when Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta will be sworn in as the 4th president.Mwai Kibaki was elected with an overwhelming majority in 2002, and re-elected in a contentious election in 2007, and had a good run as president.The overall consensus is that he did well in his 10 years as president despite some glaring cases that involved grand larceny during his administration. These include:Scams associated with "Anglo-Leasing" &...

29 January 2013 » Cold Tusker

Has anyone who partnered with naushad merali ever made a decent return?"Merali cuts KDN stake as South African firm exits" [Click on the Link]This reminds me of the sale of shares in Kencell to Celtel... and a further sale of shares to Zain then to Airtel.Not to forget the prior 'deals' when he off-loaded 'Firestone EA' (now Sameer Africa) shares at KES 35.50 to an unsuspecting public. He had bought these from ICDC at KES 5 [it was in the Information Memorandum].Then there was Eveready aka...

04 January 2013 » Cold Tusker

Treasury releases Sh10bn balance for CDF projectshttp://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Treasury-releases-Sh10bn-balance-for-CDF-projects/-/539546/1656406/-/item/1/-/vxxw02z/-/index.htmlYep, the current minister for finance, Robinson Githae, who I think has not done too badly, has crumbled under political pressure & released KES 10bn to the greedy MPigs.I guarantee some, if not most, of the MPigs will divert the funds to:1) buy votes by providing 'jobs' to supporters working on the CDF...

13 December 2012 » Cold Tusker

Location: KICC AmphitheatreDate: 5 Dec 2012Time: 10.30 amMy opinions in italics The matatu strike had delayed a lot of folks but the check-in handled by CRS was relatively slow. It took almost 30 mins to check in but it was organized since the security was good. There was a lunch voucher given at registration - more on this later.It seemed the majority of the initial questions were not related to the Financial Statements or Annual Report. There was a sense of frustration among the directors...

23 November 2012 » Cold Tusker

It seems to me that Mumias will need to raise funds for expansion as the COMESA deadline approaches.http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Opinion---Analysis/State-must-privatise-sugar-mills-urgently/-/539548/1627038/-/10oqds8/-/index.htmlThe link above from Business Daily Africa is quite eye-opening. The highlights are mine."The latest development in the sugar industry is the talk about an impending acquisition of one of the new sugar factories in the Southern Nyanza region by one of the players...

18 October 2012 » Cold Tusker

Original Source:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1493489/Why-has-South-Korea-overtaken-Kenya-Because-its-rulers-can-limit-their-greed.htmlWhy has Asia boomed in recent decades, while Africa has sunk into penury?The pithiest answer is a joke I first heard in Nigeria. An African and an Asian make friends at Oxford before becoming politicians.Years later, the African visits the Asian and is impressed by his mansion, with a Mercedes-Benz in the drive."How can you afford this?" he asks. The...

12 October 2012 » Cold Tusker

What an interesting but odd (& worrying) tidbit about the NIC Rights Issue that was forwarded to me:What is or has the CMA done after they were informed?        NSE websiteNewspapersTotal Number of New Shares Accepted Under Entitlement 85,988,640 85,509,866 478,774Total Value of New Shares Accepted Under Entitled [KShs] 1,805,761,440 1,795,707,186 10,054,254Take Up Percentage87%87% -  Number of Untaken (Lapsed) Rights 12,735,751 13,214,525 (478,774)Total Number of New Shares applied for...

08 October 2012 » Cold Tusker

Interesting tidbit from Reuters.http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/10/08/uk-airfrance-etihad-airbelin-idUKLNE89700R20121008KQ's 2nd largest shareholder [& technical partner] is Air France-KLM therefore the recent agreement between AF-KLM "Air France-KLM, Etihad, Air Berlin plan partnership" probably means KQ may reduce flights to Dubai in favor of Abu Dhabi to take [code-share] advantage of Etihad's worldwide connections to Australia, China, North America & the Far East.Etihad flies to...

06 October 2012 » Cold Tusker

From: "Rawser"http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/MPs+award+themselves+Sh2bn+bonus+in+secret+deal+/-/1064/1526316/-/kluja4z/-/index.htmlKenyan MPs remix of the national anthem:........................................................................Politicians of all persuasionsStrip this our land and nationFortunes motivate us and keep usMay we steal with impunityDodge taxes in unityPlenty be sourced within our docketsLet all politicians ariseWith scams both wily and foolproofEating be our...

24 September 2012 » Cold Tusker

Source: An article by Carol Musyoka from Business Daily Africahttp://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Opinion+++Analysis/Lessons+from+Indian+lunch+deliverymen/-/539548/1515248/-/item/0/-/r0g02g/-/index.htmlOwnership inherently drives behaviour.As simple as that. Compare this to the performance of firms or individuals who have little interest since they have little or no ownership. More later."...the dabbawalas do not consider themselves employees, nor do they consider the Mumbai Tiffin Box Suppliers...

05 September 2012 » Cold Tusker

"Raila orders KQ to suspend layoffs" reads the headline. And click on the link provided to read more.I am no apologist for KQ's Board of Directors & Management - which in my view decimated KQ's shareholders' value - and my views can be found here (FY 2011-12 results), here (Corporate Governance) & here (Irregular Commission Payments).So back to our task at hand. Remember the elections are around the corner & the blabbermouths are out in force!"Prime Minister Raila Odinga has...

03 August 2012 » Cold Tusker

Original source from Business Daily - Click the link belowhttp://www.businessdailyafrica.com/New+mortgage+laws+tie+down+spouses++/-/1248928/1469428/-/87e4mxz/-/index.htmlA marriage certificate is now a critical document for anyone applying for a mortgage loan thanks to new land laws that require the involvement of spouses in property acquisition.What happens to spouses (traditional marriages, etc) who do not Marriage Certificates?And for the prospective home buyers still in the singles’ club, a...

20 July 2012 » Cold Tusker

Pradeep Paunrana, the CEO of Athi River Cement, is a substantial shareholder of ARM.March 2009 ARM was trading at 60/-. July 2012 the price of the shares 198/-.Pradeep has raised funds to expand the firm's operations without diluting the shareholders' value.Titus Naikuni, the CEO of Kenya Airways, has ZERO shares in KQ. His compensation is probably in the region of KES 30-40mn annually [based on the info on the Annual Report under Executive Directors' compensation].March 2009 KQ was trading at...

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OMG